PANAJI: Goa elections are going to go down to the wire. With barely two days to go before voting begins no clear frontrunner has emerged in the elections with it increasingly clear that no party is likely to get a full majority on its own and with all parties leaving post poll options open the stage is set for post poll squabbling over possible alliance formation.
BJP
First up is the ruling party the BJP. Holding a commanding majority of 27 in the Goa Legislative Assembly prior to the onset of election season, these elections were the BJP’s to lose. With most of the winnable candidates on their side of the fence, the intimidating strength of the ruling government at the centre, the money and muscle power that their candidates have and other factors like the party claiming ownership of the Hindu identity at the national level etc.
Yet the party finds itself in a precarious position. As things stand, the party can only count about 10-11 seats as winning seats while it faces a tough fight in an additional dozen or so seats and is completely out of the race in the rest. Either its primary competitor is the Congress especially in a crucial taluka like Bardez, Quepem and Mormugao or is the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party in talukas like Pernem and Ponda. In Salcete where the party used to usually back independents in order to break the Congress stranglehold is contesting this time on its own.
The winning candidates that the BJP can count among its ranks include the Ranes of Sattari, the Monserrates of Panaji and Taleigao, Rohan Khaunte, Mauvin Godinho, Pemendra Shet in Maem and Chief Minister Pramod Sawant in Sanquelim.
The party’s chances hinge on how many seats in which they cross the line that are currently 50-50 and could swing either way. Much depends on the mood on the day prior to polling and polling day itself.
Congress-GFP alliance
The primary challenger to the BJP is the Congress-Goa Forward Party alliance. Unlike the BJP the two party alliance has surefire seats in only about half a dozen constituencies and will need to convert a much larger share of 50-50 constituencies in its favour if it is to emerge the single largest party in the state. The alliance partners are hoping to ride on a wave of anti-incumbency as a trip through the state and it is evident that people are looking for change — either because of rising unemployment or simply because they are fed up of the false promises that they have been given over the years that have remained unfulfilled — the promise to restart mining, the promise to give workable infrastructure and roads and not just the highway as well as water supply and electricity supply.
The AAP
Also in the race is the Aam Aadmi Party which is making its second attempt at gaining a foothold and a seat in the Goa Legislative Assembly. Their prospects are considerably better than the last time round and they are likely to open their account through winning the Benaulim seat while have a chance at wresting the Siroda seat from the BJP owing to the lacklustre performance of the current BJP MLA Subhash Shirodkar who was elected on a Congress ticket.
The MGP
The Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party remains a formidable force in Goa’s politics despite other regional parties fading away as the years went by in Goa. Thanks to the Dhavalikar brothers the MGP has two eminently winnable seats in Goa while is likely to win at least one of the two seats up for grabs in Pernem while the Bicholim and Ponda seats are also within its grasp.
The Trinamool Congress entered Goa with a bang and a big splash claiming to be the real force that can take on the BJP. Since then their bandwagon has run out of steam as those who joined the party with much fanfare began to slowly desert the party claiming that they were disillusioned with the way and manner of functioning of the Indian Political Action Committee (I-PAC) which has been running the TMC show in Goa.
Everything the TMC did came across as artificial and inauthentic and even veteran politician Luizinho Faleiro seems to have taken a backseat after he was initially announced as the party’s candidate for Fatorda and then backed out of the race.
The real blow to the way the party was perceived in Goa was when former Congress Curtorim legislator Aleixo Reginaldo Lourenco who had joined the party barely two weeks earlier quit saying he was disillusioned by the party and was hoping he would be taken back in the Congress. It was not to be however and he is now contesting as an independent.
The party has instead now pinned its hopes on two families the Kandolkar and the Alemaos both of whom have been given two tickets each. The TMC has the possibility of winning up to four seats if things work out for them, which itself can be said to be an achievement considering how late they entered the fray.
Revolutionary Goans Party
The upstart political party has captured the imagination of thousands of Goans both in Goa and abroad cashing in on rampant disillusionment with the state of affairs — unemployment, illegal constructions, and has drawn many youth into its fold. However, the party is unlikely to win any seats but will help youth give voice to their frustration and send a message to the ruling class that you better start taking notice or nativism will only grow louder and stronger.
Other political parties
Besides the mainstream parties other parties in the fray include the Nationalist Congress Party, Shiv Sena, the Goencho Swabhiman Party, the Jai Mahabharat Party and the Sambhaji Brigade Party. These parties are fighting the elections for the sake of it and aren’t going to win anything.
